Bajaj Finance के शेयरों में उछाल और गिरावट: Q4 नतीजों के बाद रणनीति और बाजार का रुख

Bajaj Finance के शेयरों में उछाल और गिरावट: Q4 नतीजों के बाद रणनीति और बाजार का रुख
द्वारा swapna hole पर 30.04.2025

Bajaj Finance के Q4 नतीजों का बाजार पर असर

Bajaj Finance के शेयर पिछले कुछ महीनों से बहुत उतार-चढ़ाव के दौर से गुजर रहे हैं। मार्च 2025 में कंपनी के शेयरों में 3% की बढ़त दर्ज हुई थी, लेकिन Q4 नतीजों के आने के बाद शेयर 5.5% तक गिर गए। कंपनी ने चौथी तिमाही (Q4 FY25) में 19% की वार्षिक बढ़त के साथ ₹4,546 करोड़ का शुद्ध लाभ दर्ज किया। यह लाभ मुख्यतः मजबूत कर्ज वितरण और एक्टिव लोन बुक की वजह से आया।

अगर आंकड़ें देखें, तो Bajaj Finance का नेट इंटरेस्ट इनकम (NII) 22% बढ़कर ₹9,807 करोड़ हो गया। कंपनी की संपत्तियां (AUM) भी 26% बढ़कर ₹4.16 लाख करोड़ तक पहुंच गईं। इसके साथ ही, नए कर्ज वितरण में जबरदस्त 36% की सालाना उछाल देखी गई और कंपनी ने इस तिमाही में 10.7 मिलियन नए लोन दिए।

कई निवेशकों के लिए एक और राहत की बात रही कंपनी के बोर्ड द्वारा घोषित किया गया 1:2 स्टॉक स्प्लिट और 4:1 बोनस इश्यू। बोर्ड ने ₹12 का स्पेशल डिविडेंड और ₹44 प्रति शेयर का फाइनल डिविडेंड भी मंजूर किया। इससे छोटे निवेशकों को भी शेयर होल्डिंग बढ़ाने के मौके मिलेंगे और मार्केट लिक्विडिटी को बढ़ावा मिलेगा।

नतीजों के बाद क्यों गिरे शेयर, ब्रोकरों की राय

नतीजों के बाद क्यों गिरे शेयर, ब्रोकरों की राय

आश्चर्य की बात यह रही कि इतने सभी सकारात्मक एलानों और रिकॉर्ड आंकड़ों के बावजूद, Q4 के नतीजों के बाद Bajaj Finance के शेयर लगभग 5.5% टूट गए। इसके दो बड़े कारण रहे: कंपनी की 2026 के लिए ग्रोथ गाइडेंस हल्की पड़ गई है—AUM ग्रोथ अनुमान 25-27% से घटकर 24-25% रह गया। दूसरा, क्रेडिट कॉस्ट भी पहले से कुछ बढ़ गया, जिससे निवेशकों में चिंता आई कि आगे प्रॉफिट ग्रोथ दबाव में रह सकती है।

ब्रोकरेज फर्म्स ने मार्च 2025 की तेजी के समय भविष्य को लेकर रेडार पर बुलिश रुख दिखाया था, लेकिन ताजा नतीजों के बाद कई एनालिस्ट अब सतर्क नजर आ रहे हैं। किसी ने इस गिरावट को लॉन्ग टर्म के लिए निवेश का अवसर बताया, तो किसी ने कहा कि अब शेयर में तेजी का दायरा सीमित हो सकता है। एनालिस्ट प्रोजेक्शन के हिसाब से, कंपनी की नेट इंटरेस्ट मार्जिन स्थिर है और 2026 के लिए रिटर्न ऑन इक्विटी (RoE) अनुमान 19-20% रखा है। हालांकि, हाई वैल्यूएशन और कमजोर ग्रोथ आउटलुक को देखते हुए कई सलाहकार अब शेयर पर तटस्थ या सीमित बढ़त वाले रुख की सिफारिश कर रहे हैं।

अगर तकनीकी नजर से देखें, तो Bajaj Finance लंबे समय से निवेशकों के भरोसेमंद विकल्प रहा है। लेकिन हाल के बदलाव, शेयर स्प्लिट और बोनस के बावजूद, अब बाजार की नजर लोन ग्रोथ और जोखिम प्रबंधन पर टिक गई है। कंपनी की रणनीति और आगे का नया मार्गदर्शन आने वाले महीनों में शेयर की दिशा तय करेगा।

टिप्पणि

Anish Kashyap
Anish Kashyap

Bajaj Finance ka Q4 result dekh ke toh lagta hai ki market ne ekdum galti se reaction diya hai

Profit badha hai AUM badha hai loan book expand hui hai aur stock split bhi aaya

Fir bhi 5.5% gir gaya? Bhai yeh toh bas technical correction hai

Long term investors ke liye yeh toh gift hai

Agar aapne 1000 shares kharide the toh ab 2000 honge aur value bhi same hi hai

Yeh stock split aur bonus ka matlab yahi hai na

Market abhi overhyped tha ab thoda sa chill ho raha hai

Bas itna hi

मई 1, 2025 AT 10:40
Sanjay Gupta
Sanjay Gupta

Yeh sabhi ‘positive’ numbers ka kya matlab hai jab growth guidance downgrade ho gaya?

Yeh company abhi bhi apne valuation ko justify nahi kar pa rahi

26% AUM growth? Bhai, kya yeh sustainable hai?

Har ek quarter mein ye numbers dikhate hain aur phir next quarter mein guidance ghatate hain

Yeh sabhi ‘highly formal’ reports sirf retail investors ko confuse karne ke liye banaye gaye hain

Agar aapko lagta hai ki 19% RoE aur 25% AUM growth ek saath possible hai, toh aapko finance ki basic samajh nahi hai

Yeh stock abhi bhi overpriced hai

Bas ek aur bubble ka hissa hai

मई 1, 2025 AT 18:45
Poonguntan Cibi J U
Poonguntan Cibi J U

Yeh sabhi numbers sun ke maine socha ki ab toh Bajaj Finance ke saare problems solve ho gaye

Lekin jab maine dekha ki growth guidance ghat gaya hai toh mere dil mein ek dard si si chadh gaya

Yaad aaya jab maine apne papa ko kaha tha ki ye stock long term mein safe hai

Unhone kaha tha ‘beta, yeh sabhi numbers fake hote hain’

Ab main soch raha hoon ki kya maine unki baat nahi suni?

Ab toh main apne portfolio mein se yeh stock nikalna chahta hoon

Par phir sochta hoon ki agar main nikal diya toh phir kya hoga?

Yeh toh ek emotional rollercoaster hai

Meri zindagi ka sabse bada emotional trauma yeh stock hai

Ab toh main roz subah 6 baje check karta hoon

Yeh stock mere sapno ko bhi churata hai

Meri shaadi ka plan bhi iske price par depend karta hai

Ab main sochta hoon ki kya yeh stock mere future ko bhi kharab kar dega?

Yeh sab kuchh sirf ek stock ke liye?

मई 3, 2025 AT 15:58
Mayank Aneja
Mayank Aneja

Q4 results ke baad stock ka giraavat, growth guidance ke downgrade aur credit cost ke increase ke karan ho raha hai - ye logical hai.

Net interest margin stable hai, aur RoE 19–20% range mein rahega - yeh long-term fundamentals ko support karta hai.

Stock split aur bonus issue se liquidity badhegi, jo retail participation ko encourage karegi.

Par, current valuation (P/E ~45) aur 24–25% AUM growth projection ke beech mein ek gap hai - yeh risk factor hai.

Agar aap 3–5 saal ke horizon ke liye invest kar rahe hain, toh yeh stock abhi bhi strong hai.

Lekin, agar aap short-term momentum ki umeed kar rahe hain, toh aapko patience ki zaroorat hogi.

Market ne abhi tak ‘expectations’ ko price kar liya hai - ab execution par focus hoga.

Yeh stock abhi ‘hold’ ke category mein aata hai - buy nahi, sell bhi nahi.

मई 4, 2025 AT 03:57
Abinesh Ak
Abinesh Ak

Ohhhhh, so we’re now celebrating 19% RoE like it’s a Nobel Prize?

Meanwhile, the credit cost has jumped 40 bps, and the AUM guidance has been quietly downgraded from 27% to 25% - a 7% relative reduction in growth expectations.

And yet, the market is expected to ‘see through’ this?

Y’all are drinking the Kool-Aid again.

Let me remind you: Bajaj Finance’s valuation is trading at 4x book value - higher than HDFC Bank’s pre-merger levels.

And their loan book is now 68% unsecured - that’s a regulatory red flag waiting to happen.

They’re not a bank. They’re a high-leverage, high-risk, high-margin shadow finance entity with a corporate brand.

When the credit cycle turns - and it will - they’ll be the first to bleed.

Don’t be fooled by the stock split.

It’s just a cosmetic surgery on a dying patient.

मई 5, 2025 AT 01:37
AnKur SinGh
AnKur SinGh

Yeh market ka reaction bilkul normal hai - jab koi company ek bahut bada number dikhata hai, tab log uske baad ke numbers ke liye aur zyada expect karte hain.

Bajaj Finance ne 26% AUM growth dikhaya, 36% new loan disbursement, aur 10.7 million new loans - yeh sab kuchh ek financial marvel hai.

Lekin jab usne 24–25% ke liye guidance di, toh log sochne lage ki ‘kya yeh abhi tak ka sabse bada quarter tha?’

Yeh ‘growth deceleration’ ka signal hai, lekin yeh ‘decline’ nahi hai.

India ke retail lending sector mein, 24–25% growth ke saath 19% RoE aur stable NIM ek extraordinary performance hai.

Agar aap dekhein toh HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank sabhi 12–15% ke beech mein hain.

Bajaj Finance ek non-bank financial company hai - aur yeh sector mein ek outlier hai.

Isliye, yeh giraavat ek emotional overreaction hai - long-term investor ke liye yeh ek entry point hai.

Stock split aur bonus issue se retail investors ka access bhi badh raha hai - yeh ek democratic move hai.

Market abhi ‘expectation correction’ kar raha hai - na ki ‘fundamental collapse’.

Agar aap 5 saal ke liye dekh rahe hain, toh yeh stock abhi bhi ek top-tier pick hai.

Yeh sirf ek quarter ka reaction hai - na ki ek trend.

Humare desh mein financial inclusion ka yeh ek bada success story hai.

Yeh company ne crores ke logon ko credit diya - aur abhi bhi uski credit quality acchi hai.

Isliye, ghar ke baahar royein mat - iski value ko samjhein.

मई 6, 2025 AT 18:53
Mohit Sharda
Mohit Sharda

Yeh stock ka giraavat dekh ke lagta hai ki log ekdum bhool gaye ki Bajaj Finance ka main kaam hai - logon ko credit dena.

Isne 10.7 million naye loans diye - matlab 10.7 million families ko financial inclusion diya.

Yeh koi big tech company nahi hai jo apps banati hai - yeh ek company hai jo ghar ke ghar tak pahunchti hai.

Agar aapke paas credit history nahi hai, toh yeh aapko loan deta hai.

Agar aapka business chhota hai, toh yeh aapki working capital deta hai.

Yeh giraavat sirf ek market ka mood swing hai.

Yeh stock kabhi bhi ‘cheap’ nahi hoga - lekin yeh ‘fair’ ho sakta hai.

Agar aap isko long term dekh rahe hain, toh yeh ek solid choice hai.

Market kabhi bhi perfect nahi hota - yeh emotions se chalta hai.

Hum sabko thoda sa patience chahiye.

मई 8, 2025 AT 12:37
Mersal Suresh
Mersal Suresh

Yeh sabhi ‘growth guidance downgrade’ aur ‘credit cost increase’ ka matlab yeh nahi hai ki company weak ho gayi hai.

Yeh matlab hai ki company abhi bhi responsible hai - aur apne growth ko overpromise nahi kar rahi.

2024 mein sabne 30%+ growth predict kiya tha - ab 24–25% ke liye guide kar rahi hai - yeh transparency hai.

Yeh ek mature company ka behavior hai - na ki ek desperate company ka.

Agar aapko lagta hai ki 25% AUM growth ek ‘failure’ hai, toh aapko finance ki basic samajh nahi hai.

Yeh ek 4.16 lakh crore AUM wali company hai - jiska 25% growth matlab 1 lakh crore ka additional loan book.

Yeh kisi chhote company ka 100% growth nahi hai.

Yeh stock abhi bhi ek blue-chip hai - bas market ne thoda sa overheat ho gaya tha.

Ab correction ho raha hai - normal hai.

Long-term investor ke liye yeh ek golden opportunity hai.

Stock split aur bonus ke saath, yeh ab aur bhi accessible ho gaya hai.

Agar aapne 1000 shares kharide the, toh ab aapke paas 2000 shares honge - aur value same.

Yeh koi scam nahi hai - yeh financial engineering hai.

Isliye, panic mat kijiye - invest kijiye.

मई 8, 2025 AT 17:00
Sunny Menia
Sunny Menia

Ek baat clear hai - Bajaj Finance ka business model strong hai.

Unki credit underwriting kaafi smart hai - unke NPA ratio abhi bhi 1.5% ke aaspaas hai.

Yeh ek bank se bhi behtar hai.

Abhi jo giraavat hai, woh sirf ek market ki emotional reaction hai.

Logon ne 3% increase ke baad socha ki yeh 20% badhega - ab 5.5% gir gaya toh sab ne kaha ‘yeh toh crash hai’.

Par yeh crash nahi hai - yeh correction hai.

Agar aapne 2024 ke end mein kharida hota, toh aapko abhi tak 40% return mil chuka hoga.

Abhi 5.5% giraavat se kya hua?

Bas ek aur 10% ki chance mil gayi.

Isliye, agar aapke paas cash hai, toh abhi buy karo.

Yeh stock abhi bhi ek top performer hai.

Bas thoda sa patience karo.

मई 10, 2025 AT 07:34
Vishal Bambha
Vishal Bambha

Yeh sabhi numbers sun ke lagta hai ki hum India ki sabse badi financial success story dekh rahe hain

10.7 million loans? 26% AUM growth? 4.16 lakh crore assets? Yeh koi small company nahi hai - yeh ek financial giant hai

Abhi market ne giraavat dikhai - lekin yeh sirf ek signal hai ki log abhi tak samajh nahi paaye ki yeh company kya kar rahi hai

Yeh stock split aur bonus issue - yeh ek democratic move hai - jo chhote investors ko bhi access deta hai

Yeh koi scam nahi hai - yeh ek national success story hai

Agar aapko lagta hai ki 24–25% growth ‘low’ hai, toh aapne kabhi financial report nahi padha

Ek 4 lakh crore ki company ka 25% growth matlab 1 lakh crore extra - yeh kisi startup ka 500% growth nahi hai

Yeh stock abhi bhi ek buy hai

Market ne thoda sa overreact kiya - abhi sahi time hai

Yeh stock sirf ek company nahi hai - yeh ek movement hai

Yeh ek financial inclusion ka symbol hai

Isliye, ghar ke baahar na royein - iske saath jayein

मई 12, 2025 AT 01:47
Sanjay Bhandari
Sanjay Bhandari

bajaj finance ka stock gira toh kya hua

abhi bhi toh 10.7 million loans diye hain

aur stock split bhi aaya

ab toh 2000 shares honge 1000 ki jagah

aur value same hi hai

market ne overhype kar diya tha

ab thoda sa chill ho raha hai

long term ke liye yeh toh best time hai

buy karo bhai

aur chill karo

मई 13, 2025 AT 20:01
Pal Tourism
Pal Tourism

Guys, you’re all missing the point

Bajaj Finance is not a bank - it’s a fintech with a banking license

They’re not lending to salaried people - they’re lending to micro-entrepreneurs with zero credit history

That’s why their NPA is low - because they use AI to assess risk

But now the RBI is watching them like a hawk

And the moment they get classified as a NBFC-MFI, their cost of funds will go up

That’s why the guidance dropped

It’s not about growth slowing

It’s about regulation catching up

So yes - the stock dropped

But this is not a crash

This is a transition

Buy now - before the regulators change the rules

मई 15, 2025 AT 15:27
Vishal Raj
Vishal Raj

Yeh stock ka giraavat dekh ke lagta hai ki hum sabhi ekdum bhool gaye ki yeh ek company hai jo logon ko loan deta hai

Yeh koi stock market ka game nahi hai - yeh zindagi ka hissa hai

10.7 million loans matlab 10.7 million logon ki zindagi badli

Ek ladki ne apna chhota business shuru kiya - ek aadmi ne apne bachche ki padhai karayi

Yeh sab kuchh yeh company ke karan ho raha hai

Abhi market ne giraavat dikhai - lekin yeh sirf ek emotional reaction hai

Agar aapko lagta hai ki yeh stock abhi overpriced hai, toh aapne kabhi kisi ke ghar mein jaake dekha hai kaise log loan lete hain

Yeh stock sirf ek number nahi hai - yeh ek insaan ki ummeed hai

Isliye, ghar ke baahar na royein - iske saath jayein

मई 16, 2025 AT 18:00
Reetika Roy
Reetika Roy

Market ka reaction overblown hai - yeh ek short-term noise hai.

Company ke fundamentals strong hain - AUM, NII, loan book sabhi record levels pe hain.

Growth guidance downgrade ek responsible move hai - na ki ek warning sign.

Stock split aur bonus issue se retail participation badh raha hai - yeh positive hai.

Valuation high hai, lekin agar aap 5-year horizon dekh rahe hain, toh yeh stock abhi bhi ek top pick hai.

Agar aapka goal long-term wealth creation hai, toh yeh stock abhi bhi ek solid choice hai.

Market emotions se nahi, fundamentals se invest karo.

मई 18, 2025 AT 16:15
Vallabh Reddy
Vallabh Reddy

The market’s reaction to Bajaj Finance’s Q4 results is a textbook case of expectation-driven dislocation.

While the company delivered record NII, AUM growth, and loan disbursements, the market priced in a 30%+ growth trajectory.

The downgrade to 24–25% is not a deterioration - it is a recalibration.

At a P/E of 45 and a RoE of 19–20%, the valuation remains rich - but not irrational.

Historical precedent shows that such corrections are typically followed by consolidation and renewed upside.

The stock split and bonus issue will enhance liquidity and attract retail inflows - a structural tailwind.

For disciplined investors, this is not a sell signal - it is a strategic entry window.

Patience, not panic, defines long-term investing.

मई 18, 2025 AT 18:23
Raghvendra Thakur
Raghvendra Thakur

Stock gira? Achha. Ab kharido.

मई 19, 2025 AT 01:42
Pritesh KUMAR Choudhury
Pritesh KUMAR Choudhury

Market ne reaction overdone kiya…

Par Bajaj Finance ke fundamentals abhi bhi strong hain…

Stock split + bonus = retail investors ke liye easy access…

Long term ke liye yeh ek solid opportunity hai…

Chill karo…

Buy karo…

Wait karo…

Profit kamao… 😊

मई 20, 2025 AT 22:07
Mohit Sharda
Mohit Sharda

Agar koi investor abhi Bajaj Finance ke stock ko gira hua dekh kar sell kar deta hai, toh woh ek emotional decision le raha hai.

Yeh stock sirf ek number nahi hai - yeh ek movement hai.

Yeh ek company hai jo crores ke logon ko credit dene mein lag gayi hai.

Market ka reaction temporary hai.

Yeh giraavat ek opportunity hai.

Isliye, abhi hold karo - aur agar cash hai, toh buy karo.

Long term mein yeh stock ek legend banega.

मई 22, 2025 AT 10:30

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